Click on and expand the above iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) chart and you’ll see the ETF holding weekly support. If readers would then look at the bottom third of the chart, you’ll see the ETF hasn’t been this “oversold” since September ’18 and early 2017.
There has been a lot of chatter on Twitter about interest rates and the fact that the 1.75% high water mark for the 10-Year Treasury (post the 55 bp low yield in early August, ’20 around the Jackson Hole conference) hasn’t been exceeded despite the blow-out March nonfarm payrolls report on April 2nd or Good Friday (the stock market was closed but the Treasury market was not closed that day) and subsequent strong or “above-expectations” economic data.
Have interest rates—particularly Treasury rates—peaked? My old Money & Banking and Bond Management professor used to say the best interest rate forecasting tool was “i + 1 = i” or the best forecaster of tomorrow’s interest rate (i + 1) is the interest rate today (i). Some TLT has been added for clients simply because in the past I’ve liked to add to stocks or ETFs testing 200-week chart support, but also being long the TLT is
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