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As Gordon Gecko said in Wall Street, “if you’re not inside, you’re outside”. The price action today in corn and soybeans reminded me of that famous scene. There was not much new in the press or from the USDA. Weather forecasts have not changed much and it looks like the workers strike in Argentina is coming to a conclusion.
For those of us who have been around the block a few times, we’ve seen this kind of price action before. This is a classic price rationing rally. The world and US corn and soybean stocks are getting tighter. Weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil have been dry and now hot. We are getting to the point where crop conditions will only get worse or some acres just won’t get planted. Unless Arg and S. Brazil get soaking rains in the next couple of weeks (which are not in the forecast) then production will be lower in a significant way.
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