Maris Research

Yields Spike On Democratic Senate Control; Markets Shrug Off Capitol Breach

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The surprising Democratic sweep of Tuesday’s Senate runoff races in Georgia led to a stampede out of US Treasuries as the yield on the 10-year benchmark spiked above 1% for the first time since March.

The rate pushed above 1.05% before retreating, on the news that supporters of President Donald Trump had breached the Capitol building and lawmakers—who were in the process of certifiying Joseph Biden’s electoral college win—had to be evacuated.

But there was no panic. Trump urged his supporters to go home peacefully, President-elect Joe Biden appealed for calm, and Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser imposed a 6 p.m. curfew. Reinforcements from the National Guard, the Secret Service, the FBI, and Virginia state police rushed to the Capitol to control the situation. Congress resumed its session by 8 p.m.

After dipping below 1.03%, the 10-year yield recovered to about 1.04%, a gain of more than 8 basis points on the day. Analysts expect Treasury yields to remain in the 1-1.5% range, but not much higher. Inflation expectations may inch up, but not too much.

What’s next? The Capitol riot interrupted the certification of the presidential vote by Congress, but it ultimately occurred, regardless of objections from some Republican lawmakers. The United States may

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